Pakistani Politics and US Policy Goals
The political winds have shifted in Pakistan, which leaves the question: How will the dynamics of Pakistan’s new political leaders play out with US policy goals in the region?
This Economist article provides some good context to recent and coming events in Pakistan. The article points out that that Administration’s key ally, Musharraf, faces a serious threat from Supreme Court justices possibly being reinstituted. He could be further weakened by a potential impeachment proceeding. This leaves little room for Musharraf to maneuver. In fact, his only available option to exert his influence is to declare emergency rule. “Mr. Musharraf could try to buy time by re-imposing a state of emergency. However, the army has made clear that it will not intervene unless serious instability looms.”
In another sign of abandonment, General Kayani relieved two of Mushraff’s top general this week. Without the army on board, Musharaff is in trouble. This sets the stage for recently elected Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani. The Economist article suggests Pakistan’s political crisis is not yet resolved and that in-fighting between the coalition’s two major parties, the PPP and PML (N) is likely. With Musharraf’s power waning, the United States must cultivate relationships with PM Gilani and coalition leaders, even through possible in-fighting.
Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte is doing just that today during a meeting with PM Gilani.
“The prime minister made it clear that the new government would continue to fight terrorism in all its forms by using democratic, economic and strategic means. ‘It is also a matter of concern for us and we will confront it with complete determination.’
Mr Gilani said Pakistan accorded high priority to its strategic relationship with the US and desired to expand the relations in all fields. He said US President George W. Bush had called him and pledged full support to Pakistan in us spheres. The prime minister said economic empowerment of people living along the Afghan border was key to addressing the issue of extremism in the region.
He expressed confidence that the establishment of ‘reconstruction opportunity zones’ would help increase economic activities in the area and create new opportunities for improving the standard of life of the people.”
March 27th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Good afternoon. Rabia here, of the FPA Iraq blog. I’ve been following Pakistani politics for quite some time myself, and I think that perhaps the reshuffling of the commanders this week has been a bit overstated. They were routine shuffles, and they were at the end of their appointments anyway. In addition, Lt. Gen. Nadeem Taj is still head of the Inter-Services Intelligence, and as long as he’s there, the support of the Army shouldn’t be underestimated. Taj is part of Musharraf’s inner circle and they are supposedly related although their relationship is unclear.
A great posting all in all, and very timely.
March 27th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Rabia,
Point well-taken. The Western media did not portray Kayani’s move as “routine.” Typically, I rely on more than one source and look for local media outlets, but I didn’t do my due diligence on that NY Times article. Thanks for the clarification. Keep up the great work over at the Iraq blog. In my opinion, it is the most important blog FPA has running.
I wonder what you’re thoughts are on General Kayani’s statements about staying out of political affairs. I’ve been highly skeptical about such statements given Pakistan’s history, but he seems to be following his word. Conversely, if Kayani had already decided Musharaff too weak of a player and detrimental to Pakistan’s security apparatus going forward, one could view the lack of military interference in the Parliamentary elections in a different manner. Your thoughts?
March 30th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Hi Jeff,
I, too, am skeptical on General Kayani’s statements regarding the distancing between the military and the government. It’s interesting, because when President Musharraf became the head of the military under Nawaz Sharif’s tenure, he was also seen in the same way that Gen. Kayani is now: namely, as someone who could be Pakistan’s savior and would stay out of politics. We should take everything that public officials in Pakistan say with a grain of salt.
You’re absolutely right about looking at the General’s lack of interference in the elections in the manner in a different light. If he already has decided that President Musharraf is bound to be sidelined, the military’s distance is more strategic than a straight abdication from the political scene. It’s hard to tell right now what strategic direction the Army will take, given the chaos that pervades Pakistani politics right now!